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China has deployed its coast guard into the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japan's territory as China ramps up tensions following the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the recent developments occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, the Japanese official, addressed lawmakers that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has left open the use of force. The island's administration and citizens overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An military assault by China would risk escalating into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was likely the coast guard, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs operating near the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are occasional, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said China had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted the island had dispatched military assets to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards the island.